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Demand Pattern Classifier

Paste 30+ days of daily sales for any item. The classifier returns the item’s demand pattern (smooth, intermittent, erratic, or lumpy) via the Syntetos–Boylan–Croston (SBC) framework and the forecasting approaches worth evaluating. This is an observed-sample summary, not a forecast or an order recommendation.

Classify your daily demand

Tip: pull the last 30 days of daily sales for one item from your POS. Days with zero sales are meaningful — keep them in.
Smooth

Frequent positive sales with relatively consistent sizes in the period entered. This describes the sample; it does not establish that future demand will stay stable.

Forecast methods to evaluate

Compare a moving average and exponential smoothing against held-out observations. Check for trends, seasonality, and periods when the item was unavailable.

Safety stock approach

A demand-variability model needs an appropriate service target, lead time, and assumptions about independence. Choose the target based on shortage cost and inventory cost.

Operator advice

Review lead times, minimum orders, availability, and recent changes before accepting an order quantity.

Show the math
Days observed30
Days with non-zero sales27
Days with zero sales3
Mean daily sales4.63
Std dev (σ)1.72
Mean non-zero demand5.15
ADI (Average Demand Interval)1.11
CV² (squared coeff. of variation, non-zero demand)0.024
SBC thresholdADI ≤ 1.32, CV² ≤ 0.49
ClassificationSmooth

This tool summarizes the data you enter; it does not forecast sales or calculate an order quantity. ADI is observation count divided by positive observations. CV² uses population variance of positive quantities. Thresholds are ADI 1.32 and CV² 0.49; boundary values use the lower category. Missing dates, returns, and stockouts need separate review. Read about intermittent-demand forecasting.

What this tool computes

The classifier uses two parameters from the SBC framework (Syntetos, Boylan, Croston) to place every item into one of four regimes:

  • ADI (Average Demand Interval) — how many days, on average, between non-zero demand observations.
  • CV² (squared coefficient of variation) — how volatile non-zero demand sizes are relative to their mean.

The four regimes:

  • Smooth — ADI ≤ 1.32 and CV² ≤ 0.49. Frequent, relatively stable positive quantities.
  • Intermittent — ADI > 1.32 and CV² ≤ 0.49. Infrequent sales with relatively stable positive quantities.
  • Erratic — ADI ≤ 1.32 and CV² > 0.49. Frequent sales with variable positive quantities.
  • Lumpy — ADI > 1.32 and CV² > 0.49. Infrequent sales with variable positive quantities.

These categories describe the observed sample. They help frame a comparison of forecasting methods; they do not select the best method or determine safety stock on their own. Check trend, seasonality, stockouts, and forecast performance on held-out data. See Coefficient of Variation for the full math.

How to use this

  1. Pull the last 30+ days of daily sales for one item from your POS (Square, Shopify, Toast, Clover, Lightspeed, Amazon, Faire). Keep the time interval consistent. Daily and weekly data produce different classifications; one is not inherently more reliable.
  2. Paste the values into the form. Comma-separated, space-separated, or one per line all work.
  3. The classifier returns the observed regime and methods to evaluate.
  4. Test a forecast and inventory policy against your own history. The PAR Level Calculator uses a separate planning model; it does not import this classification.

For connected inventory signals and supplier ordering, evaluate LineNow with your own items and demand history. Core plans and optional add-ons have separate prices and trial terms; see pricing.

Related

  • Coefficient of Variation — the SBC framework explained
  • Consumption rate
  • PAR level
  • PAR Level Calculator
  • The procurement thesis — statistical replenishment in context
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